billmc
And after the spanking...
Posts: 128
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Post by billmc on Sept 3, 2010 7:16:51 GMT -5
I was wrong about Red, and Uth...hopefully not Zuma lol
I'd still ok with a trunk lynch
15 alive, probably 9-4-1, so two more Days before we are in the crapper
We need more information
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Post by normalphase on Sept 3, 2010 7:21:57 GMT -5
*sniff*
Now that one WAS an unexpected death. Romola was under some mild suspicion. I see four possible reasons she might have been killed (besides careless/random scum): -- Scum investigator (though this to some extent only defers the question to why investigate Romola) -- the people who suspect her include mafia, and they figured they weren't getting anything more out of that -- the people she suspected include mafia -- the people under less suspicion than her are disproportionally mafia
The last three can be looked into for possible leads; I think I'll do that today if I have time.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 3, 2010 8:48:49 GMT -5
Bill, when you follow up on Zuma, use this post also, from the beginning of day 2: www.giraffeboards.com/showpost.php?p=442451&postcount=13This one twinged me when I was still only posting in the forbidden thread. Something about how he gives the case against Uthrecht a nudge but never really follows through. (Auburn also does this.)
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Post by normalphase on Sept 3, 2010 11:23:17 GMT -5
the more I look at Mitchy's posts, the worse they look, heh.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 3, 2010 14:27:18 GMT -5
Mass Claim? I wrote this, but won't post it without input.
I'd like to discuss the possibility of a mass claim. Right now we have: three masons a detective, with presumably three results, hopefully none of which are masons or dead a doc (hopefully)
So somewhere around 6-8 mostly-confirmable roles, and three fully confirmable. Possibly more, depending on the setup. There are 15 people alive, 7-9 of them unconfirmed/unconfirmable. Somewhere around 4 scum.
I think we could quite possibly win this vanilla-style even without our power roles, given those numbers.
1. BillMC 3. Zuma 4. Locked In The Trunk Of A Car 5. Zeener Diode 7. Moody Mitchy 8. Special Ed 9. Lucifer 10. Mr.GreyEyes 11. Ben 13. Captain 15. Auburn 16. Solfy 17. Bufftabby 18. Duvsie 19. mlerose/Normal Phase
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Post by normalphase on Sept 3, 2010 14:30:50 GMT -5
I hesitate to turn the game into something quite so mechanical (normally I hate mass claims for just that reason), but given the large number of masons in this setup it could be a game-breaker in our favor.
My only hesitation is -- again given the large number of masons -- it's entirely possible we do not have a true detective. Which could leave the door open for a scum claim, if they come to the same conclusion and get it right. And which, in turn, would be a mess.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 3, 2010 15:01:52 GMT -5
Especially given we have off-board chat, I think it's a possibility to take into consideration. Off-board chat for masons is not typical locally.
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billmc
And after the spanking...
Posts: 128
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Post by billmc on Sept 5, 2010 10:59:44 GMT -5
yeah, I think a day 4 claim makes sense - maybe led by the cop(s) hopefully they have some useful information, coz its getting a little dull talking about me lol
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billmc
And after the spanking...
Posts: 128
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Post by billmc on Sept 6, 2010 8:43:59 GMT -5
@ Zeener. I’m sure scum will be thrilled at your analysis. My head isn’t really in the game, through no fault of anyones apart from my own. However I can tell you this. I know that: Meanings and reasons in any new nasty event, can only ever make sense to those who perform it. I hope that’s not too obscure for you to understand, though with the way my head is at the moment, it may very well be. I think Duvsie is our cop - that appears to be a reference to sense and sensibility. So that implies Duvise knows that Zeener is a character from Sense and Sensability. And the fact that she's dropped this mountain sized breadcrumb would seem to imply that she believes Zeener to be town. She's also suggesting town powers are female; town vanilla are men? So that narrows the scum pile down to: 3. Zuma 4. Locked In The Trunk Of A Car 7. Moody Mitchy 8. Special Ed 9. Lucifer 10. Mr.GreyEyes 13. Captain 15. Auburn 16. Solfy 17. Bufftabby <3 Zuma, Trunk and Mitchy are all behaving scummy Ed...dunno...undecided lucifer, greyeyes, solfy and buff are all flying low
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billmc
And after the spanking...
Posts: 128
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Post by billmc on Sept 6, 2010 16:58:01 GMT -5
why thank you for the edit m'lady
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Post by Ullz on Sept 7, 2010 3:51:09 GMT -5
why thank you for the edit m'lady Well, I had to do something to get a bit of karma from you
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 7:33:32 GMT -5
This would seem to contradict at least some of the conclusions:
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 7:36:48 GMT -5
And in her most recent post she denies being a name investigator.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 9:37:29 GMT -5
Was that breadcrumb referring to herself then? But why, what's the point?
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 10:05:45 GMT -5
I'm doing some review from the beginning. The first thing that sticks out is Ed's gender claim of female (post 47, day one, is the confirmation). There's been so much speculation about female roles being power roles, yet Squink and Romola are dead, and Ed is still alive.
Scum haven't noticed, scum have reason not to believe it (for example, a female vanilla cover role in hand, or a male power one), or Ed is scum.
I have to say in general I'm reading Ed as town so far, but re-reads have a way of changing such impressions, so we'll see. His first post of that day, teasing Uthrecht about returning players being mafia, feels townie to me.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 10:09:08 GMT -5
Good lord is he ever inflating his post count with a lot of nonsense, though.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 10:29:44 GMT -5
OK, Ben also claimed female when he showed up. Given neither Ben nor Ed has been attacked, it seems very likely the scum are not going after female roles per se. And odds are they did notice at least one of them if gender were at all important to them. So regardless of whether Ed is mafia or not, I think it's probably safe to conclude that given teh information they have, the scum cannot conclude that gender is related to power role status. Probably due to the cover roles they have, but it's also possible they might simply be paralyzed on the issue due to having a female goon or two, or a male power role of their own (Wickham).
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 10:34:43 GMT -5
Lucifer's post 71 "well, we're off to a strong start, aren't we" and Auburn's post 75
Are both scum-style openings. Which is to say, completely meaningless, but not fluff, either.
Solfy's 77, asking about complexity level, isn't a particularly townie opening, either, but not quite as bad. Maybe she has a point somewhere, will check.
BTW, if either of you (or Ulla) is annoyed by all the posts, just tell me. As long as you're not, I'll keep doing it this way -- I've lost too many posts to misclicks and power outages and the like to enjoy writing long posts when I can get away with doing it in a bunch of short ones.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 10:42:21 GMT -5
Okay, another possibly big post, #81 by Lucifer. He's the one who brings up the sample role PM and the fact that it is a male character, whereas Ed and Ben have claimed female.
That would be a DAMN ballsy play by a scum player, to point something like this out when it could hypothetically cost you a free kill of a power role. From almost anyone but Lucifer, I'd consider it a town tell. It being Lucifer, I'm not so sure. Regardless, he asks this question:
"Is there another wording of the Vanilla Town PM that is oriented to women?"
So he either has a male vanilla PM himself, or is a power role (or nontown).
This one question makes me think non-town is a strong possibility: "In keeping with the theme, can we assume that it's the women that are in power? I.E. vanilla town are men, while scum and town-aligned power roles are women?"
Wickham as godfather would make this a very, VERY scum-friendly question. Red's role makes Wickham-as-godfather quite plausible.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 11:05:34 GMT -5
#89 from Lucifer reads as pure BS -- however he intended it (and he does leave himself a little weasel room by his initial reference to the "theme"), it doesn't justify his smudge on Squink for questioning him.
Separately, compare Zuma's 78 to Zuma's 90. 90 gives the exact same opinion (don't name claim) that he gives in 78 pretty convincingly already. Except this time he appears to forget he's already weighed in on the name claim business by the time the last sentence rolls around:
Disconnect with one's own professed opinions is a pretty decent scum tell.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 11:21:33 GMT -5
Lucifer 81 "What I note in the VT PM below is that it appears a first glance to be worded toward the masculine. In keeping with the theme, can we assume that it's the women that are in power? I.E. vanilla town are men, while scum and town-aligned power roles are women?"
Lucifer 94 "I'm trying to get people to think about this before we have any accidental role claims, and to talk about the potential gender issue without divulging their own."
Consistent? I don't think so -- the first post contained the aforementioned question to the mod, but no explicit warning not to claim gender any further. You'd think if the (further) outing of power roles were his primary concern, he'd have stated it up front. Something feels disingenuous here.
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Post by Ullz on Sept 7, 2010 11:29:23 GMT -5
BTW, if either of you (or Ulla) is annoyed by all the posts, just tell me. I love it!! The read is fascinating
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 11:39:11 GMT -5
Haha I bet.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 11:50:14 GMT -5
96 -- Solfy points out that Zeener did not get sent the "vanilla male" role PM based on an earlier question of his, which I had completely missed. IF Zeener is town, I expect him to be female vanilla based on this; if scum, most likely he or they have a female vanilla cover role in hand.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 11:56:08 GMT -5
Ugh I hate 110 by Zeener. (Referencing teh "smudge" on Uthrecht by Ed.) That was not a smudge, Zeener, that was a joke. Null tell at best! And in this post he points out that Ben also commented on the smudge, which is the part I really hate. It's so "my teammate yelled at me for stretching too far with that comment, so see me point to a townie who did it too".
At any rate, this reminds me. Given our own situation here, it should be a complete given that scum have day chat and will be (somewhat) coordinated.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 12:45:09 GMT -5
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 14:05:50 GMT -5
154 Oh Mitchy. Name me one reason, just one, why lying about one's gender on day one would be something that anyone would do, town or scum. It's just not an issue. Also includes this doozy of a waffle: "Could be something could be nothing but I for one would need a little more proof than someones say so to believe they are what they say they are."
The post he was taking exception to was from Auburn; Mitchy's comment (which doesn't rise to the level of a vote) is such a stretch that I wonder if it could be a distancing tactic. (Distancing between Mitchy and Auburn, that is; the person he considered might be lying was Ben.)
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 14:11:23 GMT -5
162 Captain, policy vote on Zuma for the latter's random vote, says he'll change it when zuma does. I HATE policy votes. He complains Zuma's unaccountable, but so is he.
So far literally everybody's looking scummy to some extent. Ah mafia, how I love you.
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 14:15:47 GMT -5
170 might be interesting; mitchy calls captain on criticizing a tactic (random votes) that he himself has used in the past. Let's see if captain responds.
(As an aside, it's weird how board culture differs. On another site I play at, random votes are the traditional way to kick things off. I can't say they're all that much more horrible in terms of getting to scum than the usual "lynch the lurker"? gab-fests that start things off around here.)
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Post by normalphase on Sept 7, 2010 14:23:06 GMT -5
174 Zeener posits Duvsie and Locked both mafia due to the latter's quick vote on Red for voting Duvsie. Wish I could read Zeener better, because this is also a major stretch.
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