|
Night 3
Sept 8, 2010 13:01:11 GMT -5
Post by Ullz on Sept 8, 2010 13:01:11 GMT -5
Good luck
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 8, 2010 13:11:43 GMT -5
Post by Ullz on Sept 8, 2010 13:11:43 GMT -5
And have a drink on Zuma - I bet he'll enjoy that
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 8, 2010 13:18:10 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 8, 2010 13:18:10 GMT -5
Heehee. Thanks Ullz.
Somehow I doubt the scum will kill me tonight. A vig might, if there is one. *eep* Ben should be alive barring some kind of scum investigation. Bill's quite uncertain given Duvsie's claim, though personally if I were the doc I'd protect the mason over someone who hasn't really made it clear what she can do for the town that's useful.
14 players left, 3-4 of them scum. Best LYLO case, three scum, no third parties, and no additional town kills, we're looking at 10-3 in the morning, then 8-3, 6-3 and 4-3 -- comfortably far from do or die.
Worst case, 4 scum, a third party, and let's say two additional town kills which i'll put up front, we're looking at 8-4-1 in the morning, then 5-4-1 the next day. So Zuma's death means we're not at LYLO tomorrow no matter what.
What are your thoughts on mass claiming tomorrow, Bill? (And Ben if you're around.) I'm still for it -- before these last few hours I might have been concerned it would distract from the implications of Captain's claim to fuss with such a thing, but clearly that might happen anyway.
We should set up a claim order and some ground rules, regardless.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 8, 2010 13:34:53 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 8, 2010 13:34:53 GMT -5
And have a drink on Zuma - I bet he'll enjoy that Right now the scum probably think I'm the greatest gift ever gifted. Probably even more so if I do happen to have it right about one or two of them -- better someone scummy attacking you than someone credible. BTW Bill, well done on Zuma. In retrospect I should have found time somewhere to review his posts in particular; it probably would have made me a bit less frantic about the outcome. At least the very first person who pinged me back in the unspoiled thread turned up scum! Whee! It's going to be rather difficult to wade through the repercussions of this -- for instance, Zuma challenged Mitchy early on. Does that then mean that Mitchy is not scum, and Captain is? Am I then for sure wrong about Ed, since he went against Zuma and Captain both?
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 9, 2010 6:53:42 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 9, 2010 6:53:42 GMT -5
Just now noticed that Zuma was vanilla -- so given that and his absence the possibility of a bussing today must be taken very seriously. I'm going to compile vote records today, start making some sense of it all.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 9, 2010 9:03:25 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 9, 2010 9:03:25 GMT -5
Hypothetical mass claim order, first crack at it. Suspects should be near the top, obviously, and suspected power roles near the bottom unless like Duvsie they've already all but put it out there. Duvsie should be before Zeener: if she's a scum cop, at least make her commit to what she knows about Zeener before Zeener confirms or denies.
18. Duvsie 9. Lucifer subbed by Metallic Squink 15. Auburn 17. Bufftabby <3 16. Solfy 5. Zeener Diode 8. Special Ed 4. Locked In The Trunk Of A Car 7. Moody Mitchy 10. Mr.GreyEyes replaced by TheFlax
I suggest we stipulate that targets and results not be announced until after all claims are out and there has been some discussion of how we should proceed.
I'm doing a vote review now, and once that's done, will adjust this accordingly.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 9, 2010 10:48:13 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 9, 2010 10:48:13 GMT -5
Ed, day one post 316:
Even if he survives a lynch? I know that's a possibility I thought of myself, but such things tend to be easier to see from outside than in the heat of the moment inside. I know Ed voted Zuma and all but ... pondering.
Bill, about that eavesdropper role, how did it work in the past when you saw it?
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 9, 2010 11:05:13 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 9, 2010 11:05:13 GMT -5
Okay here are the day one votes:
Zuma’s votes in red. Zuma-related votes that stand out as potential bussing are in italics. Votes by dead or otherwise confirmed townies in parentheses.
Day One
122 Lucifer for Zeener (gratuitous use of his name) 126 Uthrect for Zeener (he didn’t say it here, but a bait vote) 127 Solfy for Lucifer (too defensive, including in his convo with Squink) 140 Unvote Lucifer for Zeener (saw others’ explanations of F11 history) 143 Unvote Uthrecht for Zeener 147 Zuma for duvsie (random.org) (Although post 158, duvsie’s response, is pretty good acting if this is intra-scum. A bit over-the-top with the outrage, but otherwise on point. Regardless, coming off a recent experience of my mafia partner “random-voting” me on day one, this stands out.) (161 Red for Duvsie) 162 Captain for Zuma (for the random vote – he specifically says he’ll remove the vote if Zuma comes up with a real reason) 173 Locked for Red (too eager to jump on duvsie bandwagon)
Vote count 2 duvsie, 1 zuma, 1 red
(176 bill for zuma) 180 Change zuma from duvsie to Bill (191 Unvote Red for duvsie) 227 Unvote Captain for Zuma (he voted with a reason) 228 Bufftabby for Red (perceived post-hoc reasoning) 233 Special Ed for Red (too many assumptions in the reasoning for his duvsie vote) (247 Romola for Red) (248 Red for Bill)
Vote count 4 Red 2 Bill, and others
(252 Unvote Romola for Red, post claim) (276 Romola for Red) 285 Zeener for Bill (291 Change Romola from Red to Uthrect) (310 Squink for Romola) 335 Auburn for Bill (would like to vote Mr Grey for nonparticipation but will go with Bill’s bad vote on Zuma) (337 Uthrecht for Bill)
Now 5 Bill 3 Red 1 romola 1 uthrecht 1 zuma 1 lucifer
(340 mlerose for mrgreyeyes) (347 Change Bill from zuma to Red) 351 Duvsie vote Red 353 Mitchy vote Romola 358 Change Mitchy from Romola to Red 359 Captain vote Red
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 9, 2010 11:27:04 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 9, 2010 11:27:04 GMT -5
Some thoughts on scum motivation. First, I think that scum would want Red gone more than Bill -- however, Bill's claim came very late and the evidence to back it up even later, so few people were actually in a position to make a direct choice. Only Duvsie, Mitchy, Captain and I think Zeener were around at the very end of the day when Bill made his claim. The first three voted Red; Zeener stayed with Bill. I don't find votes for Red suspicious in this circumstance and am not sure what to make of Zeener.
Second, the bandwagon on Bill was begun by Zuma, a known scum. Anyone voting Bill between zuma's vote and Red's claim is probably a townie (unfortunately that's only Red himself). The early bandwagon on Red (pre-claim) is interesting in that none of the players involved (Locked, bufftabby, Ed) ever removed their votes subsequently. Now *this* has scum motivation written all over it; most scum would find any excuse they could to keep votes on Red under these circumstances. Of those three, I can't remember what Locked did, but bufftabby argued directly that Red's claim would be an easy one for scum, while Ed wandered all over the map arguing mostly with Uthrect about issues of counterclaims. I can't remember if he ever got around to saying why he was keeping his vote.
After Red's claim, I feel scum might be in an awkward position. Vote Red (with possibly other teammates already there, and flying in the face of a true claim with no record of previous suspicion); vote Bill, where you know your teammate has started the Ball rolling; or do a one-off somewhere else. I think the one-off position would be tempting here. However, Zeener and Auburn both voted Bill, leaving only Mitchy with his temporary Romola vote (before noticing Bill's claim and changing to Red) as the standout.
One more topic, the possibility of bussing/distancing votes -- I see both Zuma's on Duvsie and Captain's on Zuma as strong possibilities here. The latter especially, because random *might* be random, but a policy vote with an up front guarantee of later removal is just gratuitous by any standard.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 9, 2010 11:29:08 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 9, 2010 11:29:08 GMT -5
Day one suspicions based on vote connections and timing: Locked, bufftabby, Ed, mitchy, captain.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 9, 2010 15:48:42 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 9, 2010 15:48:42 GMT -5
Post #4 Day Two -- Zuma questions Moody's late vote on Romola. No vote attached, but looks like a "genuine" attempt to get things going. He picks up on Uthrect (again without a vote) a few posts later after the comment has been flagged by others, with much the same tone.
Those who questioned Uthrecht prior to Zuma: Solfy, (mlerose), Auburn. After Zuma: (Bill -- first vote), then Ed (second vote). Based on this I tend to think Solfy and Auburn are not both mafia (that'd make three in a row giving Uthrecht a hard time).
Other stuff from that page: Locked not mafia with Ed or Captain -- the comments from both of them toward Locked are rather vitriolic. From day one a note I forgot to post: mitchy and captain not both mafia (post 170).
Note none of this is certain (you know that), but worth noting for a first approximation.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 9, 2010 16:25:05 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 9, 2010 16:25:05 GMT -5
From a post by duvsie on day 2:
"At least we know from Reds question to Ulla that Wickham can be lynched."
Can anyone find this for me? I don't remember it. Should be easy enough to find searching Red's posts for "wickham", but I'm still busy with vote review.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 8:02:11 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 8:02:11 GMT -5
Okay, continuing on -- this post from Auburn is interesting (#147, day two)
I'm not quite sure what to make of it. To sum up, MrGreyEyes (now TheFlax) posted something that posited Red having been NKed. Obviously he was talking about Squink, and the post has mge's usual disconnect to it besides. (Reading through what? Wondering why?) Zuma's response -- he adds a vote in the next post -- strikes me as a possible distancing tactic, due to the diffidence. He also fails to notice mge's mistake, though that's a scum tell, not a distancing tell.
Then Auburn responds, calling out both of them, Zuma essentially for skimming, and MGE for solid reasons. She votes MGE. The tone of her reply to Zuma (the HUH?? overreaction, then the proferring of a possible excuse for his behavior) is suspicious, but in that case would she back up Zuma's vote? I don't know. I'm leaning toward she wouldn't, but I'm not at all certain. Anyway, it's just one post, but an interesting one.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 8:09:00 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 8:09:00 GMT -5
NETA: The following few posts from that are a discussion between Zuma and Auburn about what MGE was actually saying and what about him was actually suspicious; and it culiminates in a FOS of Auburn by Zuma. I don't particularly think it reads like they're on the same team, but see what you think. Link to Auburn's vote: www.giraffeboards.com/showpost.php?p=445183&postcount=147
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 8:15:52 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 8:15:52 GMT -5
Ohh, I totally missed post 133 by Zuma:
Now that there's whatcha call a smudge. It makes me feel a lot better about bufftabby, which of course perversely means I'm hella suspicious of it. But anyway. (Buff responds later with a refutation, but doesn't appear to find Zuma suspicious.)
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 8:58:12 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 8:58:12 GMT -5
Day Two
(19 Bill for Uthrecht) 41 Special Ed for Uthrecht (PIS) (49 Uthrecht for mlerose) 71 Zuma for zeener (not letting the bill/mason thing die) 88 Mitchy for Locked (for saying he wasn’t yet comfortable naming names on his secondary suspects) 92 duvsie for romola (PIS on Wickham, essentially, and an oddball comment) 101 Lucifer for Uthrecht (the usual, though he flags another comment as well for the same reasons) 102 Unvote Zuma for Zeener (missed an explanatory comment)
Total 3 Uthrecht, 1 mlerose, 1 Locked
(105 Unvote Uthrecht for mlerose) (116 Uthrecht for Lucifer) 118 Solfy for Locked (also considers bufftabby for lack of comments and opportunistic vote for Red; and Lucifer for cheap vote on Uthrecht and day one case. “Would vote [Lucifer] again in a heartbeat”, but prefers case on Locked for inconsistency regarding Red voters (he was one), weak accusations that go nowhere, and possible day two coaching.) 122 Locked for duvsie (duvsie’s vote on romola weak, might be hoping to start bandwagon with Locked’s suspicions. Romola also suspicious, but less so.) 132 Zuma for MrGreyEyes (speculating on Red being a 3rd party, but won’t explain why. Diffident enough with this vote it might be a bus, especially given the Locked and Uthrecht bandwagons already in gear..) (140 Nphase for Locked)
Total 3 Uthrecht, 3 Locked, 1 Lucifer, 1 duvsie, 1 MrGreyEyes
145 Unvote Lucifer for Uthrecht (pre-claim) 146 Captain for Locked (trying to make people look bad) 147 Auburn for MrGreyEyes (posting only enough to make himself look present. Calls out Zuma in same post for skimming, but does not vote) 170 Bufftabby for Mitchy (fishing) (183 Romola for Uthrecht) 207 Change Locked from duvsie to Uthrecht (self-preservation (210 Change Uthrecht from Lucifer to Locked)
Total 4 Uthrecht, 5 Locked, 2 MrGreyEyes, 1 Mitchy
219 Lucifer for Uthrecht (changed his mind about the unvote) 220 Change Locked from Uthrecht to Mitchy (doesn’t think Uthrecht is guilty, might ensure his own lynch by unvote but would rather vote a suspect) (225 Change Uthrecht from Locked to Mitchy)
Total 4 Uthrecht, 4 Locked, 2 MGE, 3 Mitchy
238 Change Zuma from MGE to Uthrecht (Uthy too convinved Locked is town, and vote on MGE is useless) 240 Unvote Zuma for Uthrecht (found an explanation) 243 Zuma for Mitchy (still uncomfy with Uthrecht, and Locked doesn’t bother him, but has been suspicious of Mitchy since first post of the day)
Total 4 Uthrecht, 4 Locked, 2 MGE, 4 Mitchy. Note Uthy in the lead as first to reach four votes.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 9:17:58 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 9:17:58 GMT -5
Ulla, was Uthrecht lynched by mistake?[/color]
At the time of post 140, it was 3 each for Locked and Uthrecht. Uthrecht reached 3 first, and neither player had ever reached 4.
140 Lucifer unvotes, making it 2 Uthy, 3 Locked 146 Captain's vote, 2 Uthy, 4 Locked. Locked is the first to four votes. 183 Romola: 3 Uthy, 4 Locked 207 Locked: 4 Uthy, 4 Locked 210 Uthrecht: 4 Uthy, 5 Locked (so locked is also the first to 5) 219 Lucifer: 5 Uthy, 5 Locked 220 Locked unvotes Uthy: 4 Uthy, 5 Locked (so again Locked is alone at 5) 225 Uthrecht unvotes Locked: 4 each 238 Zuma: 5 Uthrecht, 4 Locked (putting Uthy as first to five on the third go-round -- is this the reason for the final result? Do the earlier trips to 4 and 5 not count?) 240: Zuma unvotes, 4 each
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 9:29:56 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 9:29:56 GMT -5
Regardless, my impressions:
Zeener looks pretty good based on Zuma's early vote and unvote. The topic of the vote (the uselessness of continueing to discuss Bill's claim) is something that could as easily have been discussed in the scum thread; in addition, Zuma is forced to unvote shortly due to getting it wrong. Zuma doesn't look good for doing this, and wouldn't even if Zeener later flipped scum (the other way around is not quite the same thing), so there's no obvious advantage, and the overall tone reads very much as opportunistic vote on a town/whoops I screwed up.
Locked actually unvoted Uthrecht near the end in a situation that put *him* alone in the lead at 5 votes to Uthy's 4. I hadn't really registered this before. If not for Zuma's obvious presence in the thread at that time, this would be as close to slam-dunk on Locked's townieness as it can get. Given, though, that Zuma *was* there; and that, at that, it was his (somewhat convoluted) interference (along with Lucifer's) that wound up with Uthrecht lynched instead of Locked, to boot, this is much less certain. I don't know that I'd go after Locked again on the basis of this possibility, but if Lucifer is mafia, then it becomes very plausible. (Zuma could not have pulled it off without Lucifer's assistance.)
If Locked is not mafia, then scum motivations this day are pretty obscure -- Lucifer's initial unvote of Uthrecht is of course suspicious, as is Captain's bandwagoning on Locked. As indicated earlier, Auburn looks pretty good. Bufftabbby does not, particularly, despite getting called out once by Zuma. Mitchy looks pretty good as town, after being first primed for suspicion by Zuma in the latter's first post of the day, then ultimately voted by him at a point when it could have counted. (Especially with Zuma a known goon, making it more likely any teammates of his are not.)
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 9:35:20 GMT -5
Post by Ullz on Sept 10, 2010 9:35:20 GMT -5
Ulla, was Uthrecht lynched by mistake? [/color] At the time of post 140, it was 3 each for Locked and Uthrecht. Uthrecht reached 3 first, and neither player had ever reached 4. 140 Lucifer unvotes, making it 2 Uthy, 3 Locked 146 Captain's vote, 2 Uthy, 4 Locked. Locked is the first to four votes. 183 Romola: 3 Uthy, 4 Locked 207 Locked: 4 Uthy, 4 Locked 210 Uthrecht: 4 Uthy, 5 Locked (so locked is also the first to 5) 219 Lucifer: 5 Uthy, 5 Locked 220 Locked unvotes Uthy: 4 Uthy, 5 Locked (so again Locked is alone at 5) 225 Uthrecht unvotes Locked: 4 each 238 Zuma: 5 Uthrecht, 4 Locked (putting Uthy as first to five on the third go-round -- is this the reason for the final result? Do the earlier trips to 4 and 5 not count?) 240: Zuma unvotes, 4 each[/quote] Uthrecht was at 5 (the maximum) in 238. When he was unvoted this didn't chance. Therefore he was on top (still) when unvoted. No mistake.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 9:35:48 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 9:35:48 GMT -5
Summary of impressions through first two days:
Possibly scummy:
duvsie, Captain, MGE (Flax) due to potential Zuma distancing Locked*, bufftabby, Ed, mitchy, captain due to day one vote motivations Lucifer, captain, bufftabby due to day two vote motivations (if it wasn't clear in the last post, I agree with Uthrecht that scum might not be so eager to pile on him during the interval between his soft claim and when he started making it clearer he didnt' actually have anything to back that up)
Mitchy is looking good after day two; to a lesser extent so are zeener and Auburn. *Locked looks likely town unless Lucifer flips mafia.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 9:37:00 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 9:37:00 GMT -5
But Locked was at five previously (and first) in 210, hence the cofusion on my part. To make it crystal clear, only the *last* time into the vote lead counts? Exactly. Thanks for helping me explain it more clear
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 9:53:05 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 9:53:05 GMT -5
LOL. Thanks Ullz.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 10:04:52 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 10:04:52 GMT -5
Also LOL Bill, I notice only just now that your argument against Zuma at the start of day three *was based on* him and Locked both being scum -- should teach me to skim my fellow masons' posts. At any rate, as I mentioned above I think this is only very likely if Lucifer is *also* scum -- agreed? Because Locked's unvote would have been impossible to overcome if not for Lucifer tying it again.
Or no. I'm a dingus. Lucifer's vote actually came *before* Locked's unvote, not after it. It was Uthrecht's own unvote of Locked that put Zuma into a position to do what he did, not anything else. Granted things were flying pretty fast there and whatever plan they could hypothetically have concocted to make Locked look good without truly risking him might have gotten a bit mangled in the execution. Anyway, on reflection I think I still stand by what I have in post 19 up there, though I'm less certain.
Sorry for being so confusing.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 12:36:10 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 12:36:10 GMT -5
Day 3 (includes random comments at bottom since I'm so short on time)
(3 Bill for Zuma) (Lucifer for Zuma (voting and unvoting at end of day two. Mentions being “still suspicious” despite to my recollection never having so much as referred to Zuma since day one, if at all. Didn’t have a day end vote on day one IIRC, for that matter.) 12 bufftabby for Mitchy (same as day two) (13 nphase for Locked) 17 captain for locked (still suspicious) 21 mitchy for Locked (same as yesterday – but a bit defensive in voting only after I’d prodded him a bit.) 28 Ed on captain (lack of substantive participation) 31 Zeener on MrGreyEyes (lack of substantive participation. Zeener never voted on day two apparently, isn’t that wonderful) 35 Locked for mitchy (long post, lots of little stuff) 62 Change zeener from MGE to duvsie (speculation on Wickham = 3rd party and playing it safe; day one interaction with zuma might be putting on a show) 66 Change Locked from mitchy to captain (lack of accountability) 70 Change bufftabby from mitchy to Locked (mason-fishing)
Total 2 Zuma, 4 Locked, 2 captain, 1 duvsie
107 duvsie for Auburn (lack of content, lots of excuses. Also mentions she’d be willing to change to Zuma if push came to shove (presumably on the zuma/zeener/auburn not masons reasoning) 122 MS/Lucifer for captain (without an unvote of Zuma first, but it’s accepted anyway)
Total Locked 4, captain 3, zuma 1, duvsie 1, auburn 1
(124 nphase unvote Locked, vote bufftabby) 135 Auburn for captain (because he fits the MGE profile. Is also wondering about Ben)
Total Locked 3, captain 4, zuma 1, duvsie 1, bufftabby 1, auburn 1. captain’s claim comes here.
168 Change Locked from captain to mitchy (the claim – notes consistency between first note and mitchy’s syntax) 177 Change duvsie Auburn to Zuma (response to Ed’s prodding from 144, also offering an alternative to captain, to give scum a choice. Could be a scum on scum vote, but a serious one if so, not just distancing.)
Total Locked 3, captain 4, zuma 2, duvsie 1, bufftabby 1
184 Change Ed from captain to zuma (doesn’t want to risk losing captain’s claim. Again, could be a serious bus attempt, though it doesn’t have to be by any means. More plausible if captain is also scum, which he might be.) (186 Change nphase from bufftabby to Ed.) (192 Change nphase from Ed to mitchy) 193 Change Locked from mitchy to Ed (missed my vote, wanted to vote for one of zeener Ed or mitchy due to eavesdrop analysis and thought ed had a vote) 197 Change Locked from Ed to mitchy (corrected situation and thinks mitchy scummier anyway)
Total Locked 3 Zuma 3 captain 2 mitchy 2 duvsie 1
199 Change zeener from duvsie to zuma (still suspicious of duvsie,may as well help her lynch her scum buddy if that’s what she’s doing – note this is consistent with his earlier statements, if also convenient) 204 Change bufftabby from Locked to mitchy (either mitchy or cap)
Total Locked 2 Zuma 4 captain 2 mitchy 3
212 Change Lucifer/MS from captain to Zuma (save captain, low participation from Zuma. She says she’s spoken of being suspicious of Zuma’s participation before, but has she?) 217 Solfy for mitchy (likes him better than zuma, quotes) 220 Change mitchy locked for zuma
Final total Zuma 6, Mitchy 4, Locked and captain 1
In post 5 Locked characterizes Zuma’s move as odd, but doesn’t vote him.
In post 87 Zeener promises to move his vote to Zuma if we’re a vote away from lynching someone else. (Duvsie does the same in post 107.) Ed in 144 questions his lack of vote for Zuma the same as I did, particularly given that he implied he thinks Locked is town and could have moved Zuma into a tie with Locked for the lead.
113 is my summary of Lucifer’s faint scumminess.
115 auburn agreeing with bill but not a vote for zuma
Auburn is busy eroding all my good will from that conversation with zuma: post 129 she explains her lack of vote for bill by saying she liked MGE for a vote but was willing to give the substitute the benefit of the doubt – however it’s been the better part of a week since bill’s vote, and the substitute has onlyjust been announced
A couple things stand out from Ed’s post 144 (besides the above): “4. Normal votes for Locked because Locked questioned if all masons were Town.” This is not the reason I used. “16. Normal unvotes Locked and votes Bufftabby. (This is the first vote that looks like it might be an attempt to preserve Locked. This leads me to believe that either Locked is Town or Scum are playing it really cool)” This comment leaves no room for the option that I am town and locked is scum. Scum-scum is the obvious hypothetical here, with scum-town as a strong possibility (implied by “attempts to preserve” – makes little sense to attribute that to town unless he thinks I’m the cop) and town-town a minor one. But town-scum is not an option at all. That is really weird.
146 by Ed is so scummy … *cries*
163 by Zeener promises to discuss why he finds captains’ claim credible, but he never follows through.
207 Ed makes a point of saying zuma was his choice to save captain, but he might change to mitchy, despite being nervous about the speed of the bandwagon on him. Sorry Ed there was no speed. Two votes (me and buff) can’t be “speed” – the third was preexisting. You’re blowing smoke, dearie.
Also Ed near the end: “Let me add to that comment and say that I hope he is Scum, and if he is, I'll be looking at the people who pushed for a Locked and then a moody lynch. And if I don't make it to morning, I encourage everyone else to take a look at that group (which, to be specific seems to be Normal and bufftabby). I'll still look at others, but that type of voting is suspicious.”
That’s … awfully prescient of him.
230 Locked states he thinks zuma will flip town since both zeener and Ed (the “scum” people) had voted him.
|
|
|
Night 3
Sept 10, 2010 12:46:23 GMT -5
Post by normalphase on Sept 10, 2010 12:46:23 GMT -5
Sorry this is such a mess.
Scum motivations. The obvious one, to save Zuma, doesn't yield much. Everyone's at least halfway consistent with earlier opinions, or is making votes that are unlikely to go anywhere that will beat Zuma's two early votes. In this light, Mitchy's lack of voting Locked until I had prodded him actually looks *good*. Ed's bandwagon on captain has an obvious potential scum motivation; if not him, then Locked and especially Lucifer/MS* are also early candidates. Given Zuma's role as goon, these possibilities only make sense if Captain is town. If Captain is scum, I need another direction of inquiry.
*Lucifer's early vote on Zuma has possible bus written all over it, check it out. Then Squink comes in, promptly drops that vote and votes for the leading vote getter (captain).
Okay I have to stop here because I'm fried and I need a break even if it turns out I miss getting to say something I wanted to. I'll just add that I think any of the late votes on Zuma carries potential for being a bus, given Zuma's role and lack of participation. And I'm obviously very suspicious of Ed. If Ed *is* scum, probably Mitchy is also, because captain would not be (and the quotes). Conversely if Captain is scum, Ed probably is not (because why the bus when he could just hop on Zuma's wagon for town cred?). Lots of other links as well but I can't get through them right now.
Good luck both, see you on the flip side (or not).
|
|
billmc
And after the spanking...
Posts: 128
|
Night 3
Sept 12, 2010 11:54:08 GMT -5
Post by billmc on Sept 12, 2010 11:54:08 GMT -5
Somehow I doubt the scum will kill me tonight. Famous last words
|
|
billmc
And after the spanking...
Posts: 128
|
Night 3
Sept 12, 2010 12:52:39 GMT -5
Post by billmc on Sept 12, 2010 12:52:39 GMT -5
And I generally agree with your comments (now that I've had time to read them - sorry, was in California last week on business, so limited time to review)
I changed the claim order as I'm inclined to believe Duvsie's motivations are town.
|
|